Traceability infrastructure is critical to the rapid rollout of new products.
Take Lenacapavir, the breakthrough HIV prevention drug now entering African markets. In countries like Nigeria and similar nations, regulatory approval depends on systems that verify product authenticity and track each dose from the manufacturer to the patient. The same traceability requirements will shape market entry for products in development, such as the long-acting injectable for malaria prevention (MMV371), treatments for drug-resistant malaria (GanLum), single-dose malaria treatments in development, and more.
For Lenacapavir, selecting a traceability provider involves aligning provider cost structures with volume certainty and geographic coverage. Programs must consider pilot flexibility (which enables uncertain demand), scale efficiency (which leverages confirmed forecasts), and timing.
Traceability providers include donor-funded initiatives such as UNICEF TRVST, large global logistics companies like DP World, tech-driven innovators such as Sproxil, Figorr, and others. The newer, tech-enabled innovators offer differentiated pricing based on varying deployment scenarios.
Rapid analysis suggests piloting an innovative traceability solution appears to cost between $1K-100K ($.024-$2 per dose), while costs at scale can reach $1.7M ($.01-$0.36 per dose).
A rapid analysis of 6 innovative, tech-enabled traceability providers revealed 3 major pricing types: per-label pricing, bundled setup, and per-country licensing:
- Per-label pricing ranges from $0.023 to $0.045 per dose, with no commitment required, allowing programs to start small and expand as demand grows.
- Bundled setup models offer the lowest unit costs at scale (starting at $0.01 per dose at 5M units) but have upfront costs of $25,000- $40,000.
- Per-country licensing charges fixed fees regardless of volume, enabling multi-country deployment without duplicating setup costs.
For a pilot of 50K doses, costs could range from $0.024 per dose with bundled setup pricing to $2 per dose with per-country licensing. However, at a larger scale (e.g., confirmed demand for 5M doses), per dose costs with per-country licensing and per-label pricing nearly converge, with costs of $0.02 and $0.023 per dose, respectively, totalling around $100K to run the traceability infrastructure. While zero-commitment variable pricing enables a pilot without upfront costs, it is not the most economical at a larger scale. The choice: pay high upfront costs before confirming demand or accept flexible pricing that may become prohibitively expensive at volume.
Figure 1: Piloting an innovative traceability solution appears to cost between $1-$100K ($.024-$2 per dose), while costs at a larger scale can reach $1.7M ($0.01-$0.36 per dose).
| Pricing Model | Upfront Costs | Pilot – 50K Doses | 500K Doses | 5M Doses | Strategic Fit |
| Per-Label | $0 | $2,250 ($0.045/dose) | $16,000 ($0.032/dose) | $115,000 ($0.023/dose) | Uncertain demand, pilot testing, <100K doses |
| Bundled Setup Hybrid | $25,000-$40,000 | $1,200-$85,500 ($0.024-$1.71/dose) | $7,000-$313,500 ($0.014-$0.627/dose) | $50,000-$1,796,500 ($0.01-$0.36/dose) | Confirmed 500K-5M annual demand |
| Per-Country Licensing | $0 | $100,000 ($2.00/dose) | $100,000 ($0.20/dose) | $100,000 ($0.02/dose) | Multi-country or single-country >5M doses |
Note: Ranges reflect variation within each model type; costs based on Nigeria deployment pricing and are only indicative of broader African market rates.
Multi-country deployments benefit from models that avoid replicating setup costs per country and can hasten timelines.
While per-country licensing may be the most expensive per dose at the pilot stage, it can accelerate multi-market expansion by charging a base fee plus incremental costs for each additional country, regardless of volume, thereby enabling simultaneous pilots across regions. Alternatively, bundled setup models require replicating full setup costs in each country, often forcing sequential expansion as programs wait for volume certainty before justifying investment in the next market.
In conclusion, programs could pilot new innovations in traceability in the introduction of Lenacapavir for a few thousand dollars, generating learnings for new product introduction more broadly.
However, the selection of innovative partners will need to balance pilot flexibility against scale efficiency. A rapid analysis suggests per-label pricing can enable testing without upfront investment, bundled setups may deliver the lowest per-dose costs at confirmed volumes above 500K, and per-country licensing may help accelerate multi-market expansion despite higher pilot-stage costs.
Of course, the landscape of technology-driven solutions is always evolving. For example, GS1’s recent partnership with Google enables smartphone scanning of medicine barcodes through Google Lens, eliminates specialized equipment requirements and extends traceability capabilities directly to patients and healthcare workers. Programs looking to lower cost and extend visibility can benefit from advances in traceability systems and offerings in the rollout of Lenacapavir – and beyond.
